Donald Trump is pulling slightly ahead of Kamala Harris in three battleground Sun Belt states, according to new polling from the New York Times/Siena College published Monday.
The former president is now 5 percentage points ahead in Arizona, with 50 percent to Harris’ 45 percent, and leads in Georgia by 4 percentage points. Both of those leads are within the margins of sampling error. In North Carolina, the candidates are neck and neck: Trump with 49 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
The results flip Times/Siena polling from August in Arizona and North Carolina that showed Harris slightly ahead by the same margins Trump is now, while he remained ahead in Georgia. On Labor Day, polling averages were even narrower in all three states.
Harris is still faring better than President Joe Biden did in Times/Siena polling in May, when Trump led Biden by 8 and 9 percentage points in Georgia and Arizona, respectively. That poll did not include North Carolina.
Trump’s slight momentum doesn’t appear to have translated to Republicans down the ballot, according to Monday’s polls. In the Arizona Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 6 percentage points. In North Carolina, Democratic candidate for governor Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 47 percent to 37 percent. The poll was conducted mostly before reports that Robinson had posted salacious comments on a porn website — which he denies — were made public.
The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted Sept. 17-21, surveying 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia and 682 voters in North Carolina. The polls have margins of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.
