A valuation metric, which Berkshire Hathaway chair Warren Buffett once called the “single best measure of where valuations stand,” is now signaling that U.S. equities could be trading at relatively attractive levels.
What Happened: Known as the “Buffett Indicator,” the ratio compares the total value of publicly traded U.S. companies, tracked by the Wilshire 5000 Index, to the country’s gross domestic product.
The measure currently sits at around 180%, reported Bloomberg, roughly the same level seen after last year’s rapid unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, which triggered a sharp selloff. That downturn ultimately set the stage for a strong S&P 500 rally in late 2024.
The indicator soared to record highs last year, echoing past market bubbles, including the dot-com era in 2000. Its recent dip comes as the S&P 500 has rebounded 12% from April lows, though it remains down nearly 9% from February’s record.
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“This is a crucial indicator because it helps traders know when to deploy capital and buy stocks,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “There are reasons to still be concerned about the global trade war, but if [Donald] Trump isn’t playing hardball with tariffs, people are going to buy, buy, buy with valuations much more reasonably priced now.”
Why It’s Important: In a Fortune article from 2001, Buffett characterized this level as “playing with fire,” alluding to the dotcom bubble.
“Nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level,” Buffett wrote.
“That should have been a very strong warning signal.”
Some critics of the Buffett Indicator argue that it overlooks certain important factors like elevated interest rates. Others caution that valuation metrics alone are unreliable for market timing, as assets can remain overvalued or undervalued for extended periods before adjusting, the report said.
Many traders are closely watching Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting on Saturday for any hints that Buffett has begun tapping into the firm’s record $321 billion cash reserve to scoop up discounted stocks, the report added.
Wall Street continued its rally this week, completely recovering the losses triggered by the Trump administration’s April 2 tariff announcement. Mega-cap tech giants — including Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) — all beat Wall Street estimates, with Microsoft posting its strongest weekly performance in years.