Extended outlooks for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were sounding alarms early. This season was going to be busy – really busy in the tropics. The number of storms being predicted was off the charts. Words like “above normal” and “potentially explosive” were being used to describe what was to come.
When said and done, it was a season to remember. No doubt. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially closed on Nov. 30. So, how accurate were the experts in their predictions? Let’s look at how the final numbers shook out.
Even though the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t begin until June 1, multiple weather reporting sources release extended outlooks starting as early as April. Let’s compare forecasts from AccuWeather, Colorado State University, and NOAA vs. actual.
| Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes | |
| Actual | 18 | 11 | 5 |
| AccuWeather | 20-25 | 8-12 | 4-7 |
| Colorado State U.* | 23 | 11 | 5 |
| NOAA | 17-25 | 8-13 | 4-7 |
*Initial extended forecast released in April. CSU revised twice more thereafter.
Each scored well in overall accuracy. While the number of named storms was overestimated by all three, the hurricane and major hurricane estimates were on target.
Storms That Stood Out
There were more than a few factors that made this hurricane season unique. Beyond the fact it was another above-average season of tropical activity, records were broken, and catastrophic damage affected many.
Hurricane Beryl
Beryl, the second storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, achieved Category 5 status in late June. This is earlier than any other system on record in the Atlantic. And despite devastating landfalls in the Leeward Islands and Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl still had enough steam to strike Southeast Texas as a strong Category 1 storm in early July.
This Texas corn field took a big blow from Beryl. Bob Reed, who farms in Matagorda County, is hopeful that his corn and cotton crops will be salvageable. | Bob Reed via Texas Farm Bureau
According to Gary Joiner, Director of Communications for the Texas Farm Bureau, there were varying degrees of damage from Hurricane Beryl to local farms and ranches in the landfall areas. Rain totals ranged from 2 inches to more than 10 inches. Some localized areas picked up nearly 15 inches.
Hurricane Debby
After a mid-summer lull in tropical activity, Hurricane Debby roared to life in late August. Debby dropped historic amounts of rainfall across North Florida and parts of the Southeast U.S. after making landfall as a Category 1 in Florida’s Big Bend region.
According to the preliminary UF/IFAS Economic Impact Analysis Program (EIAP) report, agricultural production losses in Florida due to Hurricane Debby had an estimated value between $93.7 million and $263.2 million.
This peanut field at the North Florida Research and Education Center was swamped by Hurricane Debby. | Tyler Jones, UF/IFAS
The EIAP report shows Debby affected more than 2.2 million acres of agricultural lands.
Hurricane Helene
The second major hurricane of the season (Helene) slammed into an already battered area of Florida’s Big Bend with Category 4 force in late September. The system moved at a rapid pace upon approach and after landfall. Catastrophic storm surge inundated coastal areas, as well as inland rivers and tributaries. The storm unleashed torrents of rainfall once it trekked further north, triggering flash floods in the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee.
The recently released assessment from the UF/IFAS Economic Impact Analysis Program put ag production losses in Florida from Hurricane Helene at an estimated value between $40.3 million and $162.2 million.
Georgia also experienced extensive damage from Helene. Samantha Kilgore, Director of Communications for the Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association, says, “Many of our fall vegetables were downed from wind damage, and then later due to loss of power and inability to access the fields. A Category 4 hurricane is not something the specialty crop industry can plan around or plant for — we just simply have to endure.”
This farm structure came up on the losing end in its battle against Hurricane Helene’s winds. | Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Association
Hurricane Milton
Less than two weeks after major Hurricane Helene struck, along came Milton. This major hurricane was the third landfalling storm for Florida in 2024. Milton brought not only high winds, devastating power surges, and flooding to already saturated areas, but also spawned numerous damaging tornadoes well outside of its core. At its peak, Milton’s sustained winds reached 180 mph while churning over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The mind-blowing wind speed places Milton in the Top 3 highest winds on record in the Atlantic basin.
Extreme damage to protected agriculture structures after Hurricane Milton in Eustis, FL. | Jon’s Nursery
Growers who might have escaped the brunt of Helene weren’t as lucky with Milton. Florida Citrus Mutual Executive Vice President and CEO Matt Joyner say Hurricane Milton caused significant damage across the state’s main citrus belt. “In the impacted areas, growers are reporting substantial losses of their crop from fruit blown off the trees, broken limbs, damaged leaves, and toppled trees.”
This citrus grove just north of Lake Placid, FL, sustained damage from a tornado spawned during Hurricane Milton’s assault. Trees and fruit not entirely taken out will likely display storm stress symptoms in the coming weeks and months. | Ray Royce
Agriculture production damage estimates are still in progress for Milton.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary
2024 Atlantic hurricane season summary graphic | NOAA, National Hurricane Center
Looking Forward
The accuracy seen in the extended forecasts speaks to advances in technology. The latest forecast modeling is leaning more on AI to track potential tropical cyclones before they even form. There is a margin for error in any forecasting technology, of course. Anything beyond seven days out must be taken with a large grain of salt. But, by and large, most tracking models were on the right path more often in 2024 than they weren’t.
Advanced warning of hurricanes and tropical storms has grown by leaps and bounds in only a few years. We still watch closely though. No matter how much technology grows in this field, the weather will always remain a wild card.
2024 Atlantic hurricane season names graphic December update | AccuWeather
After the Storms
As recovery continues in the wake of hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton, Meister Media Worldwide strives to provide important grower information and resources for assistance. Click here to explore resources now.
