Capitol Building in Washington D.C. | Doganmesut, via Adobe Stock
Our media channels are much quieter a few weeks after the national election. Regardless of your vote, this is a good time to take a breather, reflect, and review the events of November 5.
In the next Congress, the Senate will be under Republican control. After flipping four Senate seats, the Republicans now hold a majority of 53-47. Jim Justice (R-WV) won after Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced his retirement. Bob Casey (D-PA), a three-term senator, was defeated by Dave McCormick (R), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) lost to Trump ally Bernie Moreno (R). Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) was defeated by Tim Sheehy (R), a businessman in aerial firefighting and a former Navy SEAL.
Despite Republicans holding a majority in the Senate, passing legislation may still be challenging. A minimum of 60 votes — equivalent to three-fifths — is required to end debate and advance a bill or nomination. This means that Republicans will need bipartisan support from at least seven Democrats to move forward with any legislation or nomination.
The 119th Congress has the Senate poised to spend a lot of time reshaping health care policy, particularly the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid. Among Republicans, John Curtis (R-UT) will fill Mitt Romney’s seat and has supported private dental coverage and limiting Medicare’s drug price negotiation powers. Jim Banks (R-IN) and Jim Justice (R-WV) both advocate for conservative health reforms, with Justice notably supporting restrictive abortion and vaccine laws. On the Democratic side, Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) is expected to prioritize telehealth and pharmacy reform, Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) will focus on domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing and affordable healthcare, and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) supports Medicare expansion and mental health initiatives. These lawmakers are expected to bring distinct perspectives to key health debates in Congress. The healthcare debate is likely to take up a lot of time in the Senate this Congress, potentially taking time away from AmericanHort priorities like the Farm Bill, Labor and Workforce, Appropriations, tax, and trade issues.
The incoming House of Representatives closely resembles the current Congress. The Republicans will control the House by a slim margin and retain the majority in the House by 220-215. The question is, does the minority of the majority party, the Republicans, run the House? Only time will tell.
Why Does This All Matter to the Horticultural Industry?
While Republicans have gained control of both the House and the Senate, their majority in both chambers is still slim. We have seen many instances in the recent past where such narrow majorities can lead to delays in the legislative process. Without knowledge of the committee assignments for the upcoming Congress — information we will not receive until February or March of 2025 — it is challenging to predict the specific outcomes in key policy areas that AmericanHort is advocating for. However, now that nearly all the seats have been decided, we can outline some general expectations for the larger policy focusing ahead.
Farm Bill Reauthorization
The Farm Bill remains a foundational piece of agricultural policy, with important provisions impacting the horticulture industry, including:
Labor and Immigration Reform
Labor shortages continue to challenge the industry, with efforts focusing on immigration reform and securing a reliable workforce. Expect policy debates to highlight the critical role visa programs like the H-2A and H-2B play in sustaining the horticulture labor market.
Trade, Transportation, and Supply Chain
Supply chain disruptions and transportation inefficiencies will remain key priorities in 2025. Policymakers aim to address these challenges to ensure the efficient movement of goods and support domestic and international trade for horticulture products.
Tax Reform and Appropriations
Potential tax policy changes and funding appropriations could impact the financial outlook for horticulture businesses. These developments could influence operational costs, requiring careful financial planning.
Trump 2.0
We are learning the Trump administration’s policy priorities in its second term. During his first term, President Trump took steps to address seasonal labor shortages, such as issuing supplemental H-2B visas, but his second term could bring stricter immigration measures. These may include mandatory use of E-Verify, increased audits, and heightened scrutiny of temporary visa programs, including the H-2A and H-2B programs, potentially leading to labor shortages and higher costs for horticulture businesses reliant on foreign workers.
Regarding trade policy, the Trump administration previously imposed tariffs on a wide range of goods, reshaping global trade relations and protecting U.S. industries. These tariffs, along with adjustments made under the Biden administration, are expected to remain a priority, with potential Congressional involvement to cement their future. The new administration will also likely advocate for a Farm Bill requiring stricter work requirements for SNAP recipients and new subsidy programs to offset tariff impacts on farmers. This administration is anticipated to shift its focus from the climate-smart agriculture policies outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act to innovative precision agriculture, potentially redirecting funding priorities within the agricultural sector. These developments, along with ongoing policy changes, will have significant implications for the horticulture industry in the years ahead.
